New Delhi: In a candid conversation on India TV’s AAP KI ADALAT with host Rajat Sharma, Prashant Kishor, the election strategist and Jan Suraaj Party Co-Ordinator, underscored the pivotal role of the upcoming state assembly elections in determining the stability of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. Kishor emphasized that the results from nine key states—Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Assam—will significantly influence the direction and stability of the current administration.
Impact of State Elections on NDA’s Stability
Prashant Kishor was unequivocal in his assessment that the outcome of these state elections could be a turning point for the NDA government. “If the BJP loses in five or six out of these nine states, the question of stability will definitely arise,” he remarked. This statement highlights the high stakes involved in the upcoming electoral battles, which could potentially reshape the national political landscape.
2024 Lok Sabha Results: A Message to Modi
Reflecting on the 2024 Lok Sabha results, Kishor described them as “a good one,” noting that the electorate had sent a clear but nuanced message to Prime Minister Modi. He said, “People have sent a clear message to Modi asking him to run the government. They have also conveyed to him that ‘You Are Not God… run the government, but not as a dictator, run the government like a democratic leader.’” This, according to Kishor, indicates that while the public still supports Modi, there is an expectation for a more democratic and less autocratic governance style moving forward.
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Rahul Gandhi’s Leadership and the Congress Party’s Performance
When asked about the prospects of Rahul Gandhi as a viable alternative to Modi, Kishor was measured in his response. He acknowledged that Rahul Gandhi has made significant strides within the Congress Party but stressed that he still has “miles to go” before he can be considered a national leader on par with Modi. “In this election, Rahul has established himself as the leader of Congress, and none others can claim that stature in the party for the next five to ten years. But to establish himself as a leader of the country, he has a long way to go,” Kishor commented.
Kishor also drew an analogy to the 1977 elections, where Indira Gandhi’s Congress won 154 seats after a major electoral defeat. He credited Rahul Gandhi for the Congress Party’s revival, comparing the party’s current position to that of 1977 under Indira Gandhi’s leadership. Despite the Congress securing only 99 seats, Kishor believes Rahul deserves recognition for rejuvenating the party.
Opposition’s Unity and the Future of Indian Democracy
Kishor expressed optimism about the increasing cohesiveness of the opposition, which he believes is beneficial for Indian democracy. He noted that the opposition has succeeded in setting their narrative and creating a more balanced discourse in Parliament. This, according to Kishor, has led to more robust debates and a more dynamic political environment.
The Launch of Jan Suraaj Party and Bihar’s Political Landscape
Kishor, who is set to launch his Jan Suraaj Party in Bihar on October 2, asserted that the Lok Sabha election results have opened up new opportunities for alternative political movements like his own. He argued that if the BJP had secured a more overwhelming victory, emerging parties would have faced greater challenges. “The biggest beneficiaries of this year’s Lok Sabha election are parties like us who are offering an alternative to the voters,” Kishor said.
He also expressed confidence that the opposition will continue to remain strong in India, particularly in a country where economic disparities are significant. Kishor pointed out that over 60 crore people in India earn less than Rs 100 per day, making them less susceptible to political messaging through expensive advertising campaigns.
BJP’s Position as the Political Axis
Despite acknowledging his own miscalculations regarding the BJP’s performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Kishor maintained that the BJP would remain the central force in Indian politics for the foreseeable future. He compared the BJP’s current dominance to the Congress Party’s position from 1950 to 1990, highlighting a clear shift in the political axis from Congress to the BJP.
Reflecting on BJP’s Performance and Campaign Strategy
Kishor admitted that his prediction of the BJP winning 300 seats was incorrect, noting that the party’s vote share remained stable at 36%, despite a slight drop. He attributed the BJP’s underperformance to several factors, including rural distress, farmers’ issues, and growing economic inequality. He also pointed out that Uttar Pradesh has become a significant challenge for the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
Kishor was critical of certain aspects of the BJP’s campaign strategy, particularly the slogan “Ab Ki Baar, 400 Paar,” which he believes backfired. He argued that the opposition successfully framed this slogan as an attempt by the BJP to secure a mandate to amend the Constitution and end caste reservations, which resonated negatively with the electorate.
Yogi Adityanath and Modi: Tensions in UP?
Addressing speculations about differences between Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and BJP leadership, Kishor dismissed the idea of personal rivalry. However, he acknowledged that there might have been concerns among Yogi’s supporters that a landslide victory for Modi and Amit Shah could threaten Yogi’s position. Kishor drew parallels with the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, where similar dynamics were at play between Narendra Modi and L.K. Advani.
Impact of Arrests of Opposition Leaders
On the issue of the arrests of opposition leaders Arvind Kejriwal and Hemant Soren, Kishor was clear that these incidents did not have a significant impact on the election results. He argued that if the arrests had influenced voters, the BJP would have faced more substantial losses in Jharkhand, rather than in states like Rajasthan and Maharashtra.
Bihar’s Political Future and the “Lalu Factor”
Finally, Kishor discussed the results in Bihar, attributing the success of Nitish Kumar to the enduring influence of the “Lalu factor.” He explained that a large segment of voters in Bihar, who have vivid memories of the 15-year period of RJD rule, are unlikely to support Lalu Prasad Yadav again, which worked in favor of Nitish Kumar in the recent elections.
As Kishor prepares to launch his Jan Suraaj Party, his insights provide a comprehensive view of the evolving political landscape in India. His analysis of the upcoming state elections and their potential impact on the NDA government underscores the significance of these contests in shaping the future of Indian politics.
